Latvia vs Armenia

Latvia vs Armenia Preview

The final matchday of UEFA Nations League C Group 2 rolls around on Sunday afternoon, and while the headlines have already been written in terms of where both sides are finishing, there is still something worth playing for at Stadions Skonto. Latvia are rooted to the bottom of the table, unable to avoid the wooden spoon with just one point from five games, and Armenia are locked into third regardless of what happens. On paper, this is dead rubber territory. In practice, there is a bit more to it than that.

For Paolo Nicolato, the Latvia gaffer, the final whistle at the end of this campaign cannot come soon enough from a results perspective, but that does not mean he wants to sleepwalk through Sunday. His side have gone the entire Nations League group stage without a single win, and there is real pride on the line here. Latvia have not won any of their last seven competitive fixtures, with their previous victories coming against Gibraltar back in March 2026. Getting something out of this game would at least give the squad something to build on heading into 2027, and you get the sense Nicolato needs a spark more than anything.

Armenia come into this in a slightly better headspace. Yeghishe Melikyan’s side sit third, three points behind Cyprus but unable to close that gap due to an inferior head-to-head record. That sting has probably taken the edge off things slightly, but Armenia still have quality in this group and they proved that emphatically when these two sides met back on matchday one. Sunday gives them the chance to sign off with another positive result and maintain some momentum heading into their next international window.

Latvia vs Armenia Form

Latvia’s campaign in numbers reads pretty grimly: one point, no wins, five games gone. What is slightly encouraging, if you are looking hard enough for a silver lining, is that they have at least started contributing at the attacking end in recent outings. After going completely blank in their opening two fixtures, Latvia have scored in each of their last three matches. The issue is they have conceded two in each of those same games, so it has not exactly led to points on the board. Deniss Melniks got himself on the scoresheet in the 2-1 defeat to Montenegro earlier this week, which at least shows there is something going on further forward, even if the defensive side of things continues to cause problems.

Armenia’s form over the same period is a mix of encouraging and frustrating, depending on how you look at it. They have not lost since going down to Cyprus on matchday three, picking up back-to-back draws since then. For a side that started the group with a confident 2-0 win over Latvia, the momentum has stalled a little. That said, being unbeaten in your last two is not nothing, and Artur Gharibyan has been in decent touch going forward, netting against Cyprus in midweek to add to his Nations League tally. Armenia are not exactly firing on all cylinders, but they have enough about them to get the job done against a Latvia side that cannot stop conceding.

Latvia vs Armenia Head to Head

The head-to-head record between these two sides tells you everything you need to know about where the power sits in this fixture. Armenia have won four of the last five encounters, including each of the last three in a row. That sequence covers different competitions and different contexts, and in every case Armenia have found a way to get the result. The reverse fixture earlier in this Nations League campaign was a comfortable 2-0 for Armenia, with Georgiy Harutyunyan and Gharibyan both getting on the scoresheet to make it a routine afternoon. Latvia simply could not cope with the visitors on that occasion, and the gap between the sides was clear to see.

When Armenia have beaten Latvia in recent years, they have done it with some authority too. They have scored at least two goals in four of their last five victories in this matchup, which points to a team that tends to click into gear once it gets going against this particular opponent. The one anomaly was a 2-0 defeat when Latvia hosted them in October 2023, but even that was a one-off in an otherwise Armenia-dominated recent rivalry. Riga does not give the hosts much of an edge based on the evidence.

Latvia vs Armenia Lineups

Latvia are expected to line up with Matrevics in goal behind a back four that includes Melniks, who scored midweek, alongside Cernomordijs and Vientiess in central defence. Jurkovskis and Cirkin should provide the width from the full-back positions, with Daskevics, Vapne, Zelenkovs and Ciganiks offering the creativity and industry through midfield and wide areas. Roberts Uldrikis leads the line and will be tasked with making something happen against an Armenian defence that has generally been solid throughout the group stage.

Armenia should be relatively unchanged, with Gharibyan spearheading the attack after his goal against Cyprus. He will be supported by Grigoryan, Serobyan and Shaghoyan in what looks like a compact, mobile attacking unit. Hovhannisyan and Iwu partner up in the middle of the park, providing the defensive cover and the platform for the more creative players to operate off. Harutyunyan, who scored in the reverse fixture, marshals the back line alongside Mkrtchyan. Armenia look settled in terms of selection and that consistency could be a real advantage in a game where Latvia are still searching for the right combination.

Latvia vs Armenia Tactics

Latvia under Nicolato have shown a willingness to get bodies forward and not simply sit deep and absorb pressure, which explains why they have been scoring more regularly in recent games while simultaneously leaking goals. The wide players, particularly Ciganiks and Daskevics, are key to how they try to create chances, looking to stretch the opposition and find space for Uldrikis centrally. The problem is that the shape can be left exposed on the counter, and Armenia have the pace and directness to hurt them in transition. If Latvia commit too many players forward in search of the goal that would give Nicolato some sort of answer to critics, they risk being caught out at the back again.

Armenia are likely to sit at a comfortable medium block when Latvia have the ball, looking to stay compact and deny space between the lines before springing forward quickly. Melikyan’s side have done this effectively throughout the group, and it suits the profile of players like Gharibyan, who is dangerous running in behind. The midfield two of Hovhannisyan and Iwu give them a solid base and the freedom to get their more attacking players into higher positions. If Armenia can nick an early goal, the game could get quite long for a Latvia side that has struggled to come from behind at any point this campaign.

Latvia vs Armenia Prediction and Betting Tips

Everything points to Armenia winning this one comfortably. They have dominated the head-to-head in recent years, they were convincing in the reverse fixture, and Latvia simply have not shown enough defensive resilience to suggest they can keep a clean sheet. The fact that Latvia have been scoring in recent games does slightly complicate the picture, but Armenia’s quality going forward should be enough to ensure they win and win with a bit to spare.

The tip here is Armenia to win and both teams to score. Latvia have found the net in three consecutive fixtures and are unlikely to shut up shop completely, but Armenia’s attacking options give them more than enough to get over the line. Gharibyan in particular looks sharp, and with nothing to lose Latvia may push forward and leave gaps. A 2-1 or 2-0 type result feels right, but the value is in backing Armenia to take all three points while both sides contribute to the scoresheet.