Italy vs Belgium
Italy vs Belgium Preview
Two nations simultaneously hitting the reset button — that is the backdrop to this Nations League opener at the Stadio Olimpico. Italy and Belgium both arrive in Rome under new management, both carrying the weight of recent disappointments, and both trying to figure out exactly what their next chapter looks like. For a Friday night curtain-raiser to the 2026-27 Nations League, Group 1 does not hang around. France and Turkey are also in the mix, which means dropping points in game one would immediately pile on the pressure. Neither side can afford to gift the other a flying start.
Italy’s pain is well documented at this point. Missing out on a third consecutive World Cup is the kind of failure that shifts the conversation from disappointment to crisis, and the fallout has been significant. Gennaro Gattuso has gone, and after a brief spell under Silvio Baldini — who used a couple of low-key friendlies against Luxembourg and Greece to blood some youngsters — the Azzurri have gone back to a familiar face. Roberto Mancini, the man who delivered Euro 2020, has returned after his Saudi Arabia stint, and he clearly sees this Nations League as an opportunity to lay the foundations for something more coherent. Thirty-four players have been called up, with a clear nod towards youth and building depth across the squad.
Belgium’s situation is slightly different but no less transitional. Despite taking Spain to the wire in the World Cup quarter-finals and going into that tournament on the back of an 18-game unbeaten run, Rudi Garcia has been moved aside. Mark van Bommel, the Dutchman who has done solid work with PSV, Wolfsburg and Antwerp, is now tasked with steering the Red Devils through this transition. He still has De Bruyne and Lukaku to call upon, which gives Belgium a ceiling that most nations would envy, but the group around those two is changing. This trip to Rome, against a side that has won four of the pair’s last five meetings, is a tough way to begin.
Italy vs Belgium Form
For Italy, formal competitive form is hard to assess in any traditional sense given the upheaval of the coaching change and the post-qualifying chaos. What we know is that Baldini’s two friendlies — 1-0 wins over Luxembourg and Greece — told us relatively little about what Mancini’s side will look like. They were low-intensity, low-stakes games against limited opposition, chosen specifically to give fringe players minutes rather than to generate meaningful data. The positive spin is that the squad has been rotated and refreshed, and several of the new faces have earned their places through strong club form rather than reputation.
Belgium’s most recent competitive context is more substantive. That unbeaten run of 18 games under Garcia was genuinely impressive, and even the World Cup quarter-final exit came in a close, dramatic match against Spain. So Van Bommel is not inheriting wreckage — he is inheriting a squad that was competitive at the highest level just a few months ago. The question is whether the managerial change and the gradual shift in personnel disrupts the rhythm that Belgium had built, or whether experienced figures like De Bruyne provide enough continuity. Away from home, in a hostile Stadio Olimpico, with a new coach in the dugout and some unfamiliar faces in the starting XI, that is a lot of adjustment to make simultaneously.
On balance, Italy feel like the more settled proposition, which is slightly ironic given everything they have been through. Mancini knows this environment, knows this squad structure, and knows what it takes to get results on home soil with this group. Belgium, for all their individual quality, are carrying more unknowns into this one.
Italy vs Belgium Head to Head
The recent head-to-head record tells a pretty clear story. Italy have won four of the last five meetings between these two sides, with the solitary exception being a draw. Belgium have not beaten the Azzurri in recent memory in this fixture, and they have faced them three times in Nations League football already, collecting just one draw and two defeats from those games. Historically, this matchup tends to be tight, but the recent trend absolutely favours the hosts. If anything, Belgium might look at that record and feel the need to approach this differently — but changing your approach in your first game under a new manager, away from home, against a side that keeps beating you, is easier said than done.
The Stadio Olimpico has been a fortress for Italy in high-profile home games, and while Belgium have plenty of quality to cause problems, the venue record and the head-to-head history both point in the same direction. Van Bommel will know the stats, and his side will need to be tactically disciplined from the first whistle to avoid this becoming another night where Belgium leave Italy with nothing.
Italy vs Belgium Lineups
Italy are dealing with some significant absentees. Alessandro Bastoni is suspended, which hurts the backline considerably — he is one of the better ball-playing centre-backs in world football and his absence changes how Italy can build from deep. Federico Dimarco, Bryan Cristante and Manuel Locatelli are all injured, which further disrupts the options in central areas. Mancini is expected to line up in a 4-3-3, and up front there is a genuine selection dilemma. Mateo Retegui has not been called up, so the central striking role comes down to Moise Kean, Gianluca Scamacca and the Esposito brothers. Pio Esposito looks the most likely to start given his five goals in nine international appearances and his form at Inter Milan. Gianluigi Donnarumma captains the side and brings genuine authority in goal at just 27 with 83 caps already banked.
Belgium have their own evolution underway. The retirement of Axel Witsel removes a significant presence from midfield, and Van Bommel has been integrating younger players throughout his selection. Romeo Lavia and Mika Godts — who was outstanding in the Eredivisie last season — are among the exciting prospects being handed responsibility. Youri Tielemans wears the armband, which suggests Van Bommel wants experience and calm leadership around the youngsters. Fofana and Fernandez-Pardo could feature and both are serious Premier League-level talents. De Bruyne and Lukaku remain the obvious focal points, and if both start, Belgium have the individual quality to hurt anyone on their day.
Italy vs Belgium Tactics
Mancini’s default in his first spell was a 4-3-3 that gave Italy shape and structure without sacrificing attacking intent. Expect something similar here, with the front three looking to press high and the midfield trio working hard to control the tempo. Without Bastoni, the defensive line will need to be more cautious about stepping out, and the full-backs — particularly on the right — will be crucial to how Italy provide width. If Pio Esposito starts through the middle, he offers movement and pressing from the front rather than a pure target man presence, which suits the way Mancini typically wants his striker to operate.
Van Bommel is known for setting up his teams to press aggressively and play through the lines, which worked well at club level but is a different proposition on the international stage where training time is limited. Belgium will likely look to get De Bruyne on the ball in pockets between the lines, with Lukaku providing the reference point in behind. If they can get transition moments and expose Italy during periods of Belgian pressure, they have the pace and quality to create chances. But against a Mancini side at home, Belgium will need to be disciplined without the ball too — the Azzurri are dangerous through combinations in wide areas, and if Italy get on top in midfield, Belgium could find the evening difficult.
Italy vs Belgium Prediction and Betting Tips
Italy at home, new manager buzz, the better head-to-head record, and Belgium navigating their own transition under Van Bommel for the first time. There are enough factors stacking up in favour of the Azzurri that backing them to win this one makes clear sense. The absence of Bastoni is a concern and might mean Italy are not quite as expansive as they could be, but the attacking talent available — even without Retegui — is enough to create problems for a Belgian backline that is finding its shape under a new system.
Italy to win is the call here. They have done it four times in the last five meetings, they are at home, and Mancini knows how to set teams up for exactly this kind of game. Belgium will cause moments of danger, particularly through De Bruyne and Lukaku, but a tight home win is the most likely outcome. Italy Win on the Match Result market is the tip.