St Johnstone vs Falkirk
St Johnstone vs Falkirk Preview
McDiarmid Park on a September afternoon, Scottish Premiership football back where it belongs in Perth, and St Johnstone looking to make their home ground the kind of place visiting sides really do not fancy coming to. This is matchday seven, and while neither club is threatening the top of the table just yet, there is genuine substance to this fixture. Saints are sitting seventh, Falkirk are tenth, and the gap in form and home comfort levels between these two sides going into Saturday tells a decent enough story before a ball is kicked.
St Johnstone earned their way back into the Premiership the hard way, winning the Championship last season by eleven clear points and doing it in convincing fashion. There was a real concern when they went straight back down a couple of years ago that they might struggle to re-establish themselves, but Simo Valakari has them looking like they genuinely belong at this level. They have had three narrow defeats against St Mirren, Hearts and Celtic, and you can squint at each of those results and see a team that was competitive rather than one getting battered. The 4-3 win over Kilmarnock on opening day was a proper statement, and the 2-1 victory over Hibs showed they can grind out results too.
Falkirk have had a trickier start. After a genuinely impressive sixth-place finish in their first season back in the top flight last year, John McGlynn’s side came into this campaign with some optimism, but five points from six games tells its own story. They got their first league win of the season midweek, a 2-1 triumph over Hearts, which will have lifted the mood around the club considerably. The question now is whether they can carry that into a ground where they have not had much joy recently at all.
St Johnstone vs Falkirk Form
Saints have won twice at McDiarmid Park this season, and their only home defeat came against Celtic, who most sides in this league are going to lose to. The wins over Kilmarnock and Hibs show a team that knows how to use the home crowd and their own familiarity with that pitch. Three defeats on the road to Hearts, St Mirren and Celtic look a lot softer when you factor in how tightly contested each of those games was. Valakari has clearly got this group organised and competitive, and the home form in particular is the kind of foundation you can build a decent mid-table Premiership season on.
Falkirk’s form is the mirror image. Three defeats and two draws before finally breaking through against Hearts in midweek, and they also went out of the League Cup at the group stage, which was a blow both in terms of silverware and momentum. To be fair to McGlynn, his side did beat Hearts at the weekend, which is no small feat, and you could see that performance being a turning point in their season. But one win does not rewrite a difficult run of form, and heading to McDiarmid Park without several key players is not the simplest fixture to build that momentum in.
Josh Fowler is the player everyone at St Johnstone will be looking to on Saturday. Four goals in six league appearances already this term is a brilliant return, and he has the kind of direct running and penalty box instinct that lower-half Premiership defences find genuinely difficult to cope with. Falkirk’s back line has been inconsistent enough this season that Fowler will fancy his chances of adding to that tally here.
St Johnstone vs Falkirk Head to Head
Falkirk’s recent record at McDiarmid Park is doing them no favours going into this one. Three defeats from their last four visits there, with only a 1-1 draw stopping it being a complete wipeout. That kind of venue record against an opponent who is clearly settled and confident at home is a real concern, especially when you throw in the injury problems Falkirk are dealing with heading into the game. These sides did not meet during Falkirk’s previous stint in the Championship, so the Premiership head-to-head record here is the relevant sample, and it points firmly in one direction.
Saint Johnstone have generally made the most of home advantage in these meetings, and with their current form at McDiarmid Park continuing in the same vein this season, there is little in the historical record to suggest Falkirk will have an easy afternoon. The hosts clearly relish this fixture on their own turf.
St Johnstone vs Falkirk Lineups
Saints are in good shape heading into this one. Jamie Gullan is back in training but is not expected to be fit enough to feature, which is the only real concern for Valakari. Otherwise, he should have a full complement of players to choose from, and the expected lineup picks itself pretty much. Fowler leads the line, with Cotterill and Steven providing the creativity just behind him, and the back four looks settled and organised. When a gaffer has a clear first eleven and minimal selection headaches going into a home game, that is always a good sign.
Falkirk are in a much more complicated position. Six players are missing through injury, including Aidan Nesbitt, Connor McLeod, Ethan Laidlaw, Joe Gardner, Finn Yeats and Keelan Adams. That is a substantial chunk of your squad unavailable, and it limits McGlynn’s options considerably both in terms of the starting side and what he can do from the bench if the game is not going his way. After the Hearts win midweek, he may well name the same eleven, keeping faith with Ben Krauhaus and Owen Eames who both got on the scoresheet. But squad depth is a genuine issue here, and it is hard to see how those absences do not affect them over the course of ninety minutes.
St Johnstone vs Falkirk Tactics
Valakari tends to set St Johnstone up in a structured shape that is hard to break down but capable of hitting teams quickly on the counter. The midfield trio of McAlear, Holt and Campbell is disciplined enough to protect the back four while also driving forward when the opportunity presents itself, and Cotterill and Steven on either side of Fowler give them genuine attacking threat through the middle and in the channels. At home, Saints press higher and are more expansive, which suits the McDiarmid Park surface and the energy the home crowd generates. Expect them to come out of the blocks quickly and try to establish territorial dominance early.
Falkirk under McGlynn tend to be compact and hard-working, relying on shape and organisation to stay in games before looking for moments on the break or from set pieces. The problem is that their injury list disrupts that organisational balance, particularly in midfield, and playing Saints at McDiarmid Park without your full complement of players is a tall order. Krauhaus and Eames will be the focal points in attack, and if they can replicate anything like the clinical edge they showed against Hearts, Falkirk might nick something. But with Saints well-drilled at home and Fowler in the kind of form he is, the task for the Bairns is a significant one.
St Johnstone vs Falkirk Prediction and Betting Tips
This one points fairly clearly in one direction. St Johnstone have been strong at McDiarmid Park this season, Falkirk have a poor recent record at this ground, and the injury situation in the Falkirk camp is significant enough to matter. Fowler is in brilliant form, Saints look settled and organised under Valakari, and while Falkirk’s win over Hearts will have given them a boost, travelling to Perth for a quick turnaround fixture with six absentees is a very different proposition. The correct score of 2-1 to St Johnstone reflects both the home side’s attacking intent and the fact that Falkirk, to their credit, showed they can score goals midweek.
Backing St Johnstone to win 2-1 makes appeal here. The hosts have the form, the home advantage, the superior squad depth, and a striker who is delivering consistently in front of goal. Falkirk will not lie down, and their attacking pair could cause a moment or two, but the home side should have enough to see this out.