Levante vs Athletic Bilbao

Levante vs Athletic Bilbao Preview

Wednesday night football in Spain, and Athletic Bilbao head to Valencia looking to keep their momentum rolling after a decent run of results. Levante sit 13th with five points from five games, which isn’t a disaster but it’s not where Luis Castro will want his side to be either. Athletic are ninth on seven points and, more importantly, they’re a team that looks like they’ve found their feet after a rocky start. This is a fixture where the visitors arrive with genuine belief and the hosts are trying to stop a rot before it sets in.

For Levante, the context matters. They opened the season with a 3-0 hammering from Espanyol, steadied themselves with draws against Osasuna and Malaga sandwiching a very decent win over Real Betis, and then got torn apart 4-2 by Barcelona last time out. That Barcelona result is the kind of scoreline that can scramble your confidence if you let it. Castro will know his side need a response, but getting one against Athletic isn’t straightforward. The gap between needing a reaction and getting one is where plenty of sides fall down, and Levante can’t afford to let this slip into a negative spiral early in the campaign.

Athletic are in a different headspace entirely. After losing their first two to Sevilla and Barcelona, Edin Terzic’s side have rattled off a 2-0 against Celta Vigo and an impressive 3-0 over Atletico Madrid, picking up seven points from the last three. They dropped two points drawing with Elche most recently, but the overall trajectory is pointing upward. They finished 12th last season and will be targeting a top-six push this time around. Wednesday feels like a game they should be fancying.

Levante vs Athletic Bilbao Form

Levante’s five-game return of one win, two draws and two defeats tells a slightly uneven story. The win over Real Betis was the highlight, a genuinely good scalp, but the defeats have been heavy ones. Losing 3-0 to Espanyol and then 4-2 to Barcelona isn’t ideal for the defensive record, and conceding nine goals across two matches raises questions about how well they hold up against sides with real attacking quality. Athletic have that attacking quality in abundance, which makes this a concern going into Wednesday.

Athletic’s form over the last three matches is what really stands out. Seven points, ten goals scored, one conceded across the Celta and Atletico wins. Even with the Elche draw last time out, this is a side that has found a way to play with pace and purpose going forward. Nico Williams and Oihan Sancet behind Inaki Williams is a front three that can cut teams apart, and they’ve been doing exactly that. The fact they’ve shipped a couple of injuries hasn’t slowed them down, which suggests there’s genuine depth and belief running through the group right now.

The contrast in momentum couldn’t be clearer. Levante head into this having just conceded four at home to Barcelona and will be trying to rediscover the form that beat Betis. Athletic come in off the back of their best run of the season. Form alone points firmly in one direction here.

Levante vs Athletic Bilbao Head to Head

The head-to-head record is about as lopsided as it gets. Athletic have won eight and drawn three of their last 11 meetings between these two sides. Levante have not beaten Athletic since a 3-0 win back in December 2018, which is getting on for eight years without a victory in this fixture. The most recent encounter, back in February of this year, ended 4-2 to Athletic, which fits the pattern perfectly. Levante’s overall record reads just eight wins from 38 meetings in all competitions against the Lions, and that kind of historical weight doesn’t disappear just because you need the points.

There’s no indication that this one will break the trend. Athletic have dominated this fixture for years, and they’re arriving in considerably better form than Levante. Home advantage counts for something, but in a head-to-head this one-sided, it doesn’t count for as much as you’d hope if you’re a Levante supporter.

Levante vs Athletic Bilbao Lineups

Levante are without Karl Etta Eyong through a thigh problem and Alejandro Primo is a major doubt with a shoulder issue. Castro is expected to ring the changes after the Barcelona defeat, with Enzo Bardeli, Ivan Romero and Oriol Rey potentially coming in. Brugue keeps his spot on the flank. The likely lineup is Ryan in goal, a back four of Toljan, Dela, Mandi and Sanchez, with Garcia and Rey in midfield alongside Bardeli and Brugue, and Romero and Ratkov up top. A reshaped side could bring energy but also carries a risk of taking time to click as a unit.

Athletic are dealing with their own absentee list. Peio Canales, Gorka Guruzeta, Dani Vivian and Unai Eguiluz are all ruled out, but Terzic confirmed there are no new injury concerns heading into this one. Mikel Jauregizar could come into midfield from the start. The attacking trident of Nico Williams, Sancet and Robert Navarro behind Inaki Williams stays intact, and that is the key part of the team. Losing Guruzeta from the striker options is notable, but with Inaki Williams leading the line that’s a loss they can manage. Their probable XI is Simon; Areso, Alvarez, Laporte, Berchiche; Ruiz de Galarreta, Jauregizar; Navarro, Sancet, Nico Williams; Inaki Williams.

Levante vs Athletic Bilbao Tactics

Levante under Castro tend to play with a compact shape, looking to stay organised and hit on the counter when the opportunity presents itself. With the changes to the starting XI, they may look to press higher in patches to unseat Athletic’s rhythm early on, particularly given the need to respond to the Barcelona hammering. But defensively they’ve been vulnerable against teams with pace and incision through the lines, and Athletic’s front three is exactly the kind of unit that exploits that. Levante will need to be tight in the first twenty minutes or they risk conceding early and chasing the game.

Athletic are likely to look to dominate possession in the middle third and use their wide men to stretch Levante’s shape. Nico Williams on one side and Navarro on the other creates real width, and Sancet’s movement between the lines is a constant problem for opposition midfields to pick up. Terzic will want his side to be patient in the buildup rather than launching balls forward, and if they can get their press working high up the pitch it could suffocate a Levante side still finding their rhythm after the personnel changes. The conditions suit Athletic’s style and they’ll be backing themselves to control this one for long spells.

Levante vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction and Betting Tips

Athletic Bilbao to win this one. The form, the head-to-head record, the quality in their attacking third and the disruption Levante are carrying into this match all point the same way. The 4-2 scoreline the last time these two met shows that Athletic can put Levante to the sword when they’re clicking, and right now Terzic’s side are in the kind of groove where they look capable of picking up three points at a venue where they’ve historically been very comfortable. Levante will give it a go, especially in front of their own fans, and they might nick one, which makes the correct score of 1-2 the call worth backing rather than a straightforward away win.

The market to go with here is Correct Score, and the pick is 1-2 to Athletic Bilbao. It reflects the pattern of this fixture, gives Levante credit for likely getting something going at home, and prices up nicely given Athletic’s dominant recent run and their quality in the final third.