Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves

Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves Preview

San Mames on a Saturday afternoon, a Basque derby, and two sides heading into this one from very different directions over the past fortnight. This is exactly the kind of fixture that makes La Liga so compelling, and for Athletic Bilbao, it carries a fair bit of weight. Seven points from five games has them ninth, and while that is far from a crisis, Edin Terzic will know that a home defeat to local rivals would dampen the mood considerably after a promising middle stretch to their early-season schedule. Alaves, meanwhile, arrive as the form side on paper — sixth in the table with 10 points — though they have stumbled badly in their last couple of outings and desperately need to stop the rot before it becomes something more serious.

Athletic’s campaign has had a bit of everything so far. They opened with back-to-back losses to Sevilla and Barcelona, which felt ominous, before stringing together wins over Celta Vigo and Atletico Madrid that got things back on track and raised plenty of eyebrows. The 1-1 draw with Elche last Saturday was a slight step back, and the postponed midweek fixture against Levante means the Lions come in a little fresher than they might otherwise have been. That extra rest could prove useful, particularly if there are fitness concerns to manage. For Alaves, the task is straightforward on paper: end a two-game losing run and prove their bright start was not a false dawn. Three points here would make a real statement about their ambitions for the season.

Basque derbies tend to carry an edge that goes beyond league positions. These clubs share geography and identity, but the rivalry is genuine and the atmosphere at San Mames will be intense. Athletic have the home advantage and the longer head-to-head pedigree, but Alaves showed last season that they are more than capable of causing an upset on this ground. Both sides need something from this, which should make for a competitive, physical afternoon in Bilbao.

Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves Form

Athletic’s five-game return of two wins, one draw and two defeats tells a story of inconsistency, but dig into the details and there is something more encouraging underneath. The losses came against Sevilla and Barcelona, two of the more formidable sides in Spain, and the wins over Celta Vigo and Atletico Madrid showed real quality. Getting anything against Atletico is no small thing, and that result in particular suggests this Athletic squad has genuine ability when they are at it. The Elche draw was frustrating rather than alarming, and the postponed midweek fixture gives them a slight edge in terms of legs going into this one.

Alaves looked like a side with a serious plan through their first four games. Ten points from those four matches, with victories over Getafe, Villarreal and Osasuna, was genuinely impressive stuff and had plenty of people sitting up and taking notice of Quique Sanchez Flores’ work. But then came back-to-back defeats to Racing de Santander and Valencia, which has taken the shine off things somewhat. Losing to Valencia is understandable, but dropping points to Racing will have stung and raised questions about whether that early-season form was sustainable. Going into a derby off the back of two straight losses is not ideal, and there will be a psychological element to navigate here.

The contrast in momentum is probably the defining factor in terms of form. Athletic are not flying, but they are steady and playing at home. Alaves had momentum and lost it at exactly the wrong moment. How Flores gets his side up for this one after two deflating results will be telling, and whether the early-season confidence has genuinely taken a knock or whether this is just a brief blip remains to be seen over the course of Saturday afternoon.

Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves Head to Head

Athletic Bilbao have the dominant record in this fixture by some distance. Across 53 meetings in all competitions, they have won 35 times and lost just nine. That kind of historical weight does not always translate directly to modern football, but it speaks to the structural difference between these clubs over time. What is interesting about recent history, though, is that Alaves managed to win 1-0 at San Mames last season, which was their first victory over Athletic since October 2020. That is a significant result to have in the bank psychologically, and Flores will not be shy about reminding his players that it is very much possible to get a result here.

Still, Athletic’s overall record at San Mames against Alaves is heavily in the home side’s favour. The visitors snatching the points last season was notable precisely because it was so rare, and Terzic will be confident his side can reassert home dominance here. One win in several years at this ground does not suddenly make Alaves the bogeyman of this fixture, but it does mean Athletic cannot afford to be complacent, especially given how well the visitors started this campaign.

Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves Lineups

Athletic are carrying a few notable injury problems heading into this one. Dani Vivian, Gorka Guruzeta, Peio Canales and Unai Eguiluz are all sidelined, which gives Terzic real headaches across different parts of the pitch. The bigger concern going into the weekend will be Inaki Williams, who was substituted late on against Elche with an ankle problem. He needs to be assessed before the game, and his availability could genuinely shape how Athletic approach the match. His brother Nico Williams is fit and was sharp last time out, scoring once in La Liga this season and looking lively on the left, so the attack still has a genuine threat regardless, but losing Inaki would be a blow.

For Alaves, Mikel Rodriguez is absent with a long-term knee injury, and Aitor Manas is a doubt after missing the Valencia game. There could be a midfield reshuffle with Carles Alena pushing for a starting role, potentially at the expense of Abde Rebbach who may drop to the bench. The expected lineups suggest Athletic will line up with Simon in goal behind a back four of Areso, Alvarez, Laporte and Berchiche, with Ruiz de Galarreta and Jauregizar in the middle. Alaves look set to go with Sivera between the sticks, a four-man defence including Koski and Valentini, and a front two of Boye and Martinez. If Alena comes in from the start, Alaves could be more controlled in possession than they have been in recent weeks.

Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves Tactics

Athletic under Terzic tend to be compact and industrious, with a high defensive line and a willingness to press from the front. Nico Williams’ pace and directness makes him a constant threat on the left, and the side generally look to exploit wide areas and get into the box quickly rather than playing through congested central zones. Without Guruzeta, the focal point up front becomes more important to get right, and how Terzic structures the attack will be interesting. San Mames tends to provide a lift that gets the pressing game going from minute one, and they will be looking to establish that intensity early and force Alaves into errors high up the pitch.

Alaves under Sanchez Flores are organised and disciplined, and the Spaniard has built something coherent over his time at the club. They are not a side that will sit back and just try to nick something on the counter, but they are pragmatic enough to soak up pressure when required. The midfield shape will be crucial here, particularly if Alena comes in to add more craft and control. Their recent losses suggest they have been vulnerable when the high press is applied effectively, and Athletic at home will absolutely go after that. Whether the Alaves defensive unit can hold firm for long enough to give their attacking players a platform will largely determine how this one plays out.

Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves Prediction and Betting Tips

This is a genuinely interesting contest to call. Alaves have shown quality this season and they proved last year that they can win at San Mames. But losing two on the bounce heading into a Basque derby on the road, against a side that is fresher and playing in front of a partisan crowd, is a tough ask. Athletic’s home record in this fixture is strong, their squad depth is decent even with the injuries, and the extra rest from the postponed midweek game could make a real difference in the second half. The prediction here is Athletic Bilbao to win 2-1, which captures a competitive game where Alaves contribute but ultimately fall short.

The market tip is Athletic Bilbao on the Match Result. They have the home advantage, the historical edge in this fixture, the momentum of a win over Atletico not long ago, and a fresher set of legs coming in. Alaves have wobbled at just the wrong moment and will need to rediscover their early-season confidence quickly. Athletic to take all three points at San Mames is the call.