Alaves vs Valencia

Alaves vs Valencia Preview

There are games that look like genuine 50-50 contests, and then there are games like this one. Alaves, sitting pretty in the top four with 10 points from their opening five games, welcome a Valencia side that have collected just one of those same five fixtures. The table tells you almost everything you need to know, but the context around this match makes it even more one-sided on paper. Valencia are turning up to Mendizorroza without a permanent head coach, without several key players, and without a league win at this ground in nearly nine years. If Quique Sanchez Flores needed a fixture to maintain his side’s excellent home form, this is about as good as it gets.

Alaves have been one of the stories of the early La Liga season. Sanchez Flores spent last year dragging the club away from relegation danger, and now he has them rubbing shoulders with Atletico Madrid and Sevilla on 10 points, just two behind Real Madrid in second. Three wins from three at Mendizorroza puts them alongside Real Madrid, Real Betis and Barcelona as the only sides with a perfect home record in the division. The crowd will be up for this one, the team is full of confidence, and they face opponents in complete disarray. On paper, it sets up perfectly for the hosts.

For Valencia, this feels like the worst possible time to face a side this organised and this buoyant. Carlos Corberan has paid with his job following a 1-0 defeat away at Sevilla, making it four straight losses to open the campaign. Interim boss Oscar Sanchez, the B team manager, steps up for what are two of the most difficult fixtures imaginable before the international break. A team two points adrift of safety, with one goal scored in five league games, travelling to a venue where they have not won since 2017. The sooner that international break arrives for Valencia, the better.

Alaves vs Valencia Form

Alaves came into this week on the back of a four-game unbeaten run that had fans daring to dream. Three wins and a draw included a genuinely impressive 5-2 dismantling of Osasuna that announced their intentions for the season. They took the lead against Racing Santander at the weekend before eventually going down 2-1, which snapped the unbeaten start, but even that defeat felt like a bump in the road rather than any kind of crisis. They were playing away from home, they scored, and they remain third in La Liga. There is no panic whatsoever in the Alaves camp.

Valencia’s form, by contrast, reads like a disaster movie. One point from five games. Four consecutive defeats going into this one. A single goal scored across the entire campaign. The sacking of Corberan and the departure of chief executive Ron Gourlay signals that the club recognises something has gone badly wrong, but chopping and changing management at this stage rarely produces an immediate upturn in results. Braulio Vazquez returning as sporting director adds another layer of upheaval to an already unsettled club, and none of that instability is going to help the players find their confidence on a Tuesday night in the Basque Country.

The numbers paint a bleak picture for the visitors. A team that cannot score goals going to a venue where clean sheets have been the norm in recent meetings. Alaves have kept three consecutive clean sheets in home games against Valencia, and Los Che have managed just one goal across their opening five league outings. Even if Oscar Sanchez manages to lift the spirits in the dressing room following the Corberan dismissal, there is no obvious source of goals in this Valencia squad right now, and that is what ultimately concerns me most about their chances here.

Alaves vs Valencia Head to Head

The head-to-head record at Mendizorroza is a significant factor in how this game shapes up. Alaves have gone seven home games against Valencia without defeat, winning four and drawing three of those encounters. Perhaps more striking is the fact that they have kept clean sheets in each of the last three meetings at this ground. Valencia’s previous league win here dates back to October 2017, a 2-1 victory that feels like a very different era for both clubs. Since then, this has been decidedly Alaves territory when the two sides meet in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

That sort of record does not happen by accident. It points to a Valencia side that has consistently struggled to get a foothold in this fixture when playing away from the Mestalla. Given how little they have offered going forward this season, there is no reason to believe the pattern is about to change, particularly with an interim manager picking up the pieces of a managerial sacking.

Alaves vs Valencia Lineups

Alaves are dealing with a couple of notable absences. Facundo Garces and Mikel Rodriguez are both out with anterior cruciate ligament injuries, which are long-term concerns for Sanchez Flores. Striker Aitor Manas is also ruled out for the next two games after going off with a head injury late in the Racing Santander defeat and entering concussion protocols. Luis Rioja is back available after missing a couple of games through injury, which is a boost in wide areas, though Guido Rodriguez’s fitness is less certain and will need assessing before kick-off. Despite those concerns, Alaves still have plenty of options and the expected lineup looks solid throughout. Carles Alena could start after featuring in contention, and Toni Martinez is pushing for a place in attack.

Valencia’s injury list is frankly alarming. Mouctar Diakhaby, Jose Manuel Copete, Dimitri Foulquier, Diego Lopez and Umar Sadiq are all unavailable, and that is before accounting for the uncertainty around Cesar Tarrega, who came off with a hamstring problem against Sevilla. Oscar Sanchez is expected to freshen the lineup up, which makes sense when you consider how badly the previous setup has been functioning. The expected starting eleven has Rafa Mir absent, with Duro leading the line, but with so much disruption around them, this Valencia side looks short on quality across the pitch at a time when they can least afford it.

Alaves vs Valencia Tactics

Sanchez Flores has built Alaves into a compact, well-organised unit that is difficult to break down at home. They press with intensity in the right moments but are disciplined enough not to leave themselves exposed. The back four has been reliable at Mendizorroza, and the clean sheet record against Valencia in particular suggests they know exactly how to handle this fixture. Going forward, they have pace and direct play in their arsenal, and with Valencia likely to sit deep out of necessity, there will be space to exploit on the counter. Three consecutive home wins without conceding tells you everything about how hard Alaves are to play against on their own patch.

Valencia under Sanchez, at least to begin with, will likely look to be organised defensively and try not to get blown away. The interim boss may set up in a way that tries to frustrate Alaves and limit the space in behind, hoping that a tighter structure gives them a platform to build from. The problem is that even with those good intentions, they are desperately short of a goal threat. Duro leading the line is a reasonable option, but without service from midfield and with several creative players absent, it is hard to see where a Valencia goal comes from. If Alaves go in front early, it could get very uncomfortable for the visitors.

Alaves vs Valencia Prediction and Betting Tips

Everything points towards an Alaves win here. They are at home, in form, with a settled squad, a confident manager, and a superb record against this specific opponent at Mendizorroza. Valencia are in chaos off the pitch, threadbare on it, and genuinely without a goalscorer in any meaningful sense this season. The clean sheet record Alaves have built in this fixture at home over recent years is hard to ignore, and the visitors’ output in front of goal this campaign offers almost no reason to expect them to break that trend tonight.

The tip is Alaves to win and under 2.5 goals. The hosts should take care of business without needing to go through the gears, and with Valencia struggling so badly to create anything, a tight 1-0 or 2-0 home win looks the most likely outcome. Three clean sheets in a row at home against this side, one goal conceded across Valencia’s entire league season so far — the logic is hard to argue with.