Nec vs Groningen

NEC vs Groningen Preview

Sunday afternoon at the Goffertstadion and NEC Nijmegen welcome FC Groningen to Nijmegen in what shapes up as one of the more intriguing Eredivisie fixtures of the weekend. Both sides come into this one carrying momentum of completely different kinds — NEC riding high after a European statement, Groningen bruised and looking to respond after being carved open by Ajax. There’s plenty riding on this one in terms of table position too, with seven places and four points separating these two sides in the standings going into matchday ten.

For Dick Schreuder’s NEC, this is a chance to build on what was genuinely a landmark Thursday night in Zagreb. Ending an eight-match winless run with a 4-2 away victory in Europe — their first continental win since the 2008-09 UEFA Cup — was the kind of result that can change the feel of a dressing room overnight. The question now is whether they can carry that energy into the weekend, because domestically it has been slow going. Ten points from nine league games is a 12th-place return and not what anyone associated with the club envisaged after finishing third last season. They need to start converting draws into wins, and a home game against a Groningen side with nothing resembling a functioning defence right now feels like the ideal opportunity.

Dick Lukkien’s Groningen arrive at this fixture knowing they have problems to address. Seventh in the table on 14 points is respectable enough on paper, and their attacking output has been genuinely impressive over the course of the season, but conceding five at home to Ajax last time out is a dent that takes time to recover from. They are a side built on entertainment rather than defensive structure, which makes for brilliant viewing but gives you serious doubts when they head to a ground with a partisan crowd behind the home side. Groningen need points to stay in touch with the top half, but Sunday could be rough.

NEC vs Groningen Form

NEC’s recent domestic form reads like a side trying to find its footing after a historic campaign. Three consecutive 1-1 draws — against Go Ahead Eagles, at Ajax, and sandwiched around a 2-2 against Fortuna Sittard — suggest a team that has the quality to stay in games but is struggling to push over the line and claim the full three points. The Fortuna draw was the most telling of the lot: NEC trailed by two goals before Tjaronn Chery rescued them in stoppage time. That is a side showing character but also one that cannot afford to keep giving teams that kind of head start. The Zagreb win on Thursday was a different animal entirely — aggressive, sharp and confident — and Schreuder will be hoping that performance unlocks something in his group.

Chery is carrying the bulk of the attacking threat with four Eredivisie goals from nine games, though three of those have come from the spot. Bryan Linssen, who hit 11 last season and was pivotal to that third-place finish, has just one league goal to his name so far this term. If NEC are going to kick on, they need Linssen firing alongside Chery rather than leaving the captain to do the heavy lifting. The European win — where both men scored — might be the nudge the striker needed. NEC have, however, conceded in each of their last 15 matches, which is a streak that will concern Schreuder regardless of results and is a stat Groningen’s attack will fancy exploiting.

Groningen’s form is a rollercoaster that makes them genuinely hard to back with confidence. They thrashed Excelsior 5-1 away from home, then turned around and shipped five at their own ground against Ajax. They have scored 13 goals in their last five league matches, which is a truly eye-catching number, but they have also shipped heavily and have not kept a clean sheet in six games. Van Bergen and Brynjolfur Willumsson sitting joint-top in the Eredivisie scoring charts with six goals each tells you everything about the quality Lukkien has in the final third. The concern is what happens when the goals dry up for a period — because the defence offers precious little margin for error.

NEC vs Groningen Head to Head

The head-to-head record leans firmly in NEC’s favour. In the last ten meetings between these two clubs, NEC have come out on top six times with three defeats along the way. That is the kind of historical edge that reinforces what the current form and context is already suggesting — NEC have the measure of this opponent more often than not, and playing at the Goffertstadion strengthens that advantage further. Home support in Nijmegen tends to generate a proper atmosphere when the team is buzzing, and after Thursday night in Zagreb, this crowd will be up for it.

Meetings between these two sides have not historically been low-scoring affairs either. Both clubs carry a decent amount of attacking intent, and when you factor in NEC’s inability to keep clean sheets alongside Groningen’s leaky backline, the head-to-head trend of competitive, open games looks set to continue on Sunday afternoon.

NEC vs Groningen Lineups

Schreuder has a few selection headaches heading into this one but the picture is clearer than it was earlier in the week. Centre-backs Bram Nuytinck and Philippe Sandler remain unavailable through injury, which has been an ongoing issue at the back. Dusan Tadic, who picked up a calf problem against Levski Sofia and missed the last couple of matches, has been ruled out again here — the trip to Heerenveen next weekend is being targeted for his return. Ayodele Thomas is still excluded from the matchday squad for disciplinary reasons, a situation that has now kept him out of four consecutive squads and continues to limit Schreuder’s wide options. The better news is that Emre Mor, who suffered a setback in his groin injury recovery, is expected to be available, while Ahmetcan Kaplan played the full 90 in Zagreb and should slot straight back in at centre-back. The expected lineup looks like: Crettaz; Fonville, Schuurs, Kaplan; Storm, Bischoff, Nejasmic, Geiger; Lebreton, Chery; Linssen.

Lukkien confirmed on Friday that Tyrique Mercera and Elvis van der Laan will miss this one, adding to the long-term absences of Rijk Janse and Malcolm Jeng — the latter dealing with an Achilles issue. Despite the heavy Ajax defeat, Lukkien is expected to largely keep faith with the same starting eleven, with Hans Hateboer at left-back and Jacob Ondrejka again starting on the left of the front three. The expected lineup: Vaessen; Schreuders, Blokzijl, Rente, Hateboer; De Jonge, Clement; Van der Werff, Van Bergen, Ondrejka; Willumsson. David van der Werff is the key creative link here — three assists and five big chances created this season — and NEC will need to be disciplined in how they track his movement.

NEC vs Groningen Tactics

NEC under Schreuder tend to set up with a clear structure — a solid midfield base, compactness when defending, and an emphasis on getting Chery on the ball in advanced positions to either drive at defenders or pull the strings. With Tadic absent, there is slightly less creativity from deep, which puts more pressure on Chery and Lebreton to be the catalysts going forward. Linssen operates as the focal point up top and benefits from runners either side of him. If NEC can get into their rhythm early and impose themselves physically in the midfield battle, they should control large portions of this game. The concern remains that back four — short on options, and up against two of the division’s most productive forwards.

Groningen under Lukkien play with a lot of freedom in the final third. Van Bergen and Willumsson are both direct, dangerous and capable of creating something from nothing. Van der Werff tends to operate as the link between midfield and attack, finding pockets of space and threading balls in behind defensive lines. The issue for Groningen is that this attacking intent leaves space in behind, and a team like NEC — with Linssen capable of running channels and Chery capable of exploiting transitions — could really hurt them on the counter. Groningen have to score goals because they rarely see a game out defensively, which means this fixture has all the makings of an open, back-and-forth affair. Whether NEC have the sharpness to make the most of the spaces Groningen leave will ultimately determine where the three points go.

NEC vs Groningen Prediction and Betting Tips

The case for NEC here is a strong one. They have the head-to-head record, home advantage, a fresh shot of confidence from the Zagreb win, and an opponent who has just been torn apart at home and continues to ship goals at an alarming rate. Groningen’s attack is a genuine threat and you would not rule out them getting on the scoresheet — NEC have conceded in 15 straight matches after all — but backing NEC to win while both sides find the net feels like the play that captures what this fixture is setting up to deliver.

NEC have the quality to win this, the motivation after a historic European night, and a Groningen backline that has been shaky for weeks. Both teams to score is almost a certainty given the defensive records on either side of this fixture. NEC to win and both teams to score covers the most likely outcome and offers real value in a game that has goals and a home win written all over it.