Groningen vs Ajax

Groningen vs Ajax Preview

There’s something genuinely interesting brewing at Euroborg this Sunday. Groningen sit one point and one position below fourth-placed Ajax heading into this gameweek-nine clash, which means three points for Dick Lukkien’s men would leapfrog their Amsterdam visitors and put some real breathing room between them and the drop zone. But this isn’t just about Groningen’s ambitions — Ajax are in a hole right now, and the pressure on Michel’s side is building with every game that passes without a win.

Ajax cannot afford to let this slip. They’re already five points behind league leaders Feyenoord, and with the Rotterdam side flying, every dropped point feels significant. A defeat at Euroborg would be a genuine crisis point for a club that still expects to be challenging at the top of the Eredivisie. They head north on the back of a Conference League defeat to Hajduk Split in Croatia on Thursday — their third consecutive match without a win — and they’re running out of time to arrest this slide before the gap to the summit becomes something much harder to close.

Groningen, meanwhile, couldn’t be in better shape psychologically. Four games unbeaten, eight goals scored in their last two outings, and memories of last season’s 3-1 win over this very opponent still fresh. Lukkien’s men know they can beat Ajax — they’ve done it relatively recently — and they’ll be licking their lips at the sight of a travelling side leaking confidence and missing key personnel. The stage is set for a proper cup upset atmosphere, even if this is a league game.

Groningen vs Ajax Form

Groningen’s form curve has been anything but smooth, but right now it’s pointing firmly upward. They opened the season with back-to-back wins before being taken apart 5-1 by PSV away and then losing 3-2 at home to Fortuna Sittard — genuinely alarming results for a side with top-half ambitions. But Lukkien steadied the ship with draws against FC Twente and Go Ahead Eagles, and since then Groningen have looked like a completely different outfit. A 3-0 win over PEC Zwolle produced their first clean sheet of the campaign, then last time out they put five past Excelsior in Rotterdam. That’s eight goals in two games, with the attack clicking in a way that will have Ajax’s backroom staff taking notice.

The goal threat is real and it’s spread across the squad. Thom van Bergen and Brynjolfur Darri Willumsson have five league goals each — that’s serious firepower for a team at this level — and Van Bergen adds creativity on top of that, already contributing two assists. Only a handful of players across the entire division have more direct goal involvements than Van Bergen, and he’s the kind of player who can hurt you in multiple ways. David van der Werff with three assists rounds out a trio of genuinely dangerous contributors. Groningen are not a team you can afford to take lightly right now.

Ajax’s form makes for much grimmer reading. After a bright start where they were regularly putting three or more goals past opponents, the goals have dried up dramatically over the past three games. Draws against Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen, and now a defeat in Split — one goal per game across that run from a side that had looked relatively free-scoring. The Conference League loss on Thursday is particularly concerning given the short turnaround before a trip to an in-form Groningen. Key absences are mounting too. Kasper Dolberg is out long-term with an ACL injury, Steven Berghuis is unavailable, and Simon Adingra is still working his way back to full fitness. Michel needs goals from somewhere, and right now it’s not obvious where they’re coming from.

Groningen vs Ajax Head to Head

On paper, the head-to-head record looks comfortable for Ajax — Groningen have won just one of their last 10 competitive meetings between these sides. But context matters here. That one win came last March, a 3-1 victory at Euroborg in the corresponding fixture of last season, and before that there was a 2-2 draw at the same ground two seasons prior. So the trend at Euroborg specifically is shifting in Groningen’s favour, and the hosts have clearly worked out that this is a fixture they can compete in. Ajax won’t have the luxury of expecting this to be straightforward just because the historical numbers are in their favour.

What’s also worth noting is that the goals have tended to flow in this fixture. Neither of the last two meetings at Euroborg have been dull affairs, and with both sides carrying attacking threats — even if Ajax’s is somewhat blunted right now — there’s every reason to think Sunday’s game will have goals in it. Groningen’s willingness to press and commit bodies forward, combined with Ajax’s current defensive instability, feels like a recipe for an open contest rather than a tight, scrappy affair.

Groningen vs Ajax Lineups

Groningen have injury concerns to manage but none of them affect their most dangerous players. Travis Hernes, Tyrique Mercera, Elvis van der Laan, Malcolm Jeng and Rijk Janse are all unavailable, but Van Bergen, Willumsson and Van der Werff are all fit and expected to start. Lukkien looks set to line up with Vaessen in goal, a back four of Schreuders, Blokzijl, Rente and Hateboer, with Clement and De Jonge holding in midfield. Van der Werff, Van Bergen and Ondrejka provide the creative link between the lines, with Willumsson leading the line. It’s a settled-looking setup from a side that’s been building real momentum.

Ajax are considerably more stretched. Daley Blind, Caio Henrique and Anton Gaaei join Dolberg and Berghuis on the injury list, which is a significant chunk of the squad. Ter Stegen starts in goal behind a back four likely featuring Rosa, Kehrer, Baas and Wijndal. Amrabat and Klaassen will look to control the midfield alongside Brandt, with Tsygankov, Gloukh and Arokodare ahead of them. Arokodare has four Eredivisie goals already including strikes in back-to-back games, so he remains the primary threat. But with the supporting cast misfiring and multiple attackers unavailable, Michel’s options are limited if the Nigerian doesn’t fire.

Groningen vs Ajax Tactics

Groningen under Lukkien play with real energy and directness. They press with genuine intensity in the middle third, trying to win the ball high up the pitch and transition quickly into attack. Van Bergen drifts intelligently off the striker position, creating overloads and finding pockets of space in behind defensive lines. Willumsson is a handful as a focal point — physical, aggressive in the air, and sharp in tight areas. The width comes from the full-backs getting forward, with Hateboer in particular willing to overlap and deliver into the box. Against an Ajax side that has been sloppy in possession recently, Groningen will look to press aggressively from the front and exploit any hesitation or misplaced passes in the Ajax build-up.

Ajax under Michel have generally looked to dominate possession and work the ball through the lines, relying on quality in the final third to create and convert. But that system depends on the attacking players being sharp and available, and right now both of those things are in question. Gloukh has been inconsistent this season, Brandt and Klaassen offer goals from midfield but aren’t natural creators, and with Berghuis and Adingra out, the width in attacking areas is thin. If Groningen can disrupt Ajax’s rhythm through pressing and make the game scrappy, they’ll be playing right into their own hands. Ajax will need to find fluency quickly or they’ll find themselves chasing the game against a side that’s absolutely in the mood.

Groningen vs Ajax Prediction and Betting Tips

Groningen are in form, at home, and facing an Ajax side that is injury-hit, low on confidence, and coming off a European defeat just 72 hours earlier. The hosts scored eight goals in their last two games and have already beaten Ajax at Euroborg last season. Michel’s team need a response, but the circumstances here feel like they’re stacked against them producing one.

Back Groningen to win this one. The Match Result market is the play here — Groningen Home Win. Four matches unbeaten, a full-strength attack, a wobbling opponent, and home advantage all point in the same direction. Ajax’s attacking depth is compromised, their form is poor, and Groningen genuinely fancy their chances in this fixture based on recent history. This looks like exactly the kind of game where the upset lands.