Burton Albion vs Notts County
Burton Albion vs Notts County Preview
Tuesday night at the Pirelli Stadium and Burton Albion need to get the job done. This is a straight knockout audition dressed up as a group stage fixture — win and Gary Bowyer’s side are through to the EFL Trophy knockout rounds, anything less and they’re sweating. Notts County have already punched their ticket, so there’s an interesting asymmetry here: one side absolutely has to push for three points, the other can afford to be a bit more relaxed about how the evening goes.
Both clubs are sitting in the bottom half of League One at the minute, within three points of each other, so this is hardly a gulf in class. Burton have 17 points from 14 games and County have 14 from 12, with the visitors holding a game in hand. Neither side is setting the world alight in the league, which makes this Trophy clash feel more significant for morale than the competition itself might suggest. Getting through would give Bowyer’s group something to hold onto during what’s been a patchy run of league form.
The timing matters too. Burton come in off a thumping 4-0 FA Cup win over Rushden and Diamonds at the weekend, which will have done the dressing room a world of good after that chastening 2-0 defeat at Wycombe the week before. County also came through their FA Cup tie — a scrappier 2-2 draw with Altrincham before winning on penalties. So both sides have had minutes in the legs and a bit of confidence to carry into this one, just for very different reasons.
Burton Albion vs Notts County Form
Burton’s league form over the last six games is the thing that’ll be nagging at Bowyer. One win from six is a run that gets managers asked difficult questions, and you can see why the Trophy matters — it’s a chance to string some results together and get a bit of breathing room. That said, the FA Cup performance against Rushden was genuinely convincing. Four goals, clean sheet, and goals from Will Collar, Raphael Borges Rodrigues, Charlie Webster and Zac Scutt — four different scorers suggests a spread of confidence across the squad rather than relying on one man to carry them.
In the Trophy specifically, Burton’s group stage has been a bit of an odd one. They drew 1-1 with Nottingham Forest Under-21s and lost on penalties, then drew 0-0 with Grimsby and won on penalties. So they haven’t actually won a Trophy game in normal time yet this campaign, which is worth noting going into a match where they need a regulation win to guarantee progression. Penalty shootout points are nice, but they’ve needed both of them just to get to three points.
Notts County’s form is the more eye-catching story. Unbeaten in their last four across all competitions, with that extraordinary 5-1 hammering of Nottingham Forest Under-21s in the Trophy and a 2-1 win over Grimsby in the same competition. Even the Altrincham draw had a comeback narrative — County went ahead through Jacob Bedeau, fell behind, then Callum Roberts equalised late. Roberts has now scored in back-to-back games and looks sharp. Martin Paterson’s side might be resting easy on qualification, but they’re not a team that looks like they’re shutting up shop any time soon.
Burton Albion vs Notts County Head to Head
These two have crossed paths a fair bit given they’ve both rattled around the lower leagues in recent years, and clashes between Burton and County tend to be close affairs with neither side able to boss the other convincingly. At the Pirelli, Burton have had decent enough home record against County historically, but that’s league football — Trophy games carry different team selections and different levels of intensity, so the venue advantage is a bit softer than usual.
What you tend to get with these two is a compact, honest game with neither side giving the other too much space. County’s Trophy form this campaign has been genuinely impressive — 7 goals scored and only 2 conceded in two group games — so the head-to-head history might be less relevant here than the contrast in Trophy momentum. County have been flying in this competition. Burton have been surviving in it.
Burton Albion vs Notts County Lineups
Bowyer has a decision to make with Zac Scutt, the 18-year-old who came off the bench and scored against Rushden at the weekend. That kind of impact usually earns you a start, and the expectation is that Scutt comes into the attack alongside Charlie Webster and Mark O’Mahony. Collar and Kegs Chauke should hold the midfield, with Borges Rodrigues and Emeka Adiele providing the width. The expected back four of Rodrigues, Tilt, Lewis and Sibbick gives Burton some structure, with Addai in goal.
For County, Roberts is the man in form and you’d expect him just behind Kanu and Smyth up front, with Tsaroulla and Samuels-Smith providing the width. The fact that County have already qualified gives Paterson license to rotate if he wants to, but their recent form suggests he might not want to disrupt a group that’s been playing well. Belshaw starts in goal with Bedeau — who scored on Saturday — likely continuing at the back alongside Ness and McDonald. This is not a County side that’s treating Tuesday as a dead rubber.
Burton Albion vs Notts County Tactics
Burton under Bowyer tend to be hard to beat at home, organised defensively and looking to build from a solid base. With the attacking quartet of Webster, Scutt, O’Mahony and either Borges Rodrigues or Adiele in and around them, there’s pace and movement to cause problems on the counter. Expect Burton to stay compact, try to frustrate County early, and look to nick something on the break. The 4-0 against Rushden will have encouraged Bowyer that the front players can deliver when things click, but this is a significantly stiffer test.
County play with a bit more freedom in this competition, and you can see why — they’ve scored seven in two Trophy games and have the kind of attacking talent that can unlock teams. Roberts drifting in behind the front two is a threat that Burton’s defensive midfielder will need to track, and both wide players in Tsaroulla and Samuels-Smith are capable of carrying the ball. The interesting tactical question is whether County actually push to win this — they might set up with a bit more purpose than you’d expect from a side already through. Paterson seems like a manager who wants winning habits, not comfortable jogs through dead group stage games.
Burton Albion vs Notts County Prediction and Betting Tips
This one feels like it has draw written all over it. Burton need the win, but they haven’t won a Trophy game in normal time all campaign. County are in better form in this competition but have less to play for, which could mean they’re content to stay solid without chasing the game. Both sides are closely matched in League One and neither has shown they can completely dominate the other. A 1-1 is a genuinely plausible outcome here — Burton bag something, County keep their unbeaten run, and the game stays tight throughout.
The draw at 1-1 carries appeal given the context, the form, and the fact that County’s Roberts is in decent nick and Burton’s attack has just had a confidence boost. Under 2.5 Goals also makes sense as a market given the defensive nature of both teams in this competition so far — Burton have conceded just one in their two Trophy games, County two. Tight affair, goals at a premium, and a share of the spoils the most likely destination. Take the draw.