Vitoria vs Chapecoense
Vitoria vs Chapecoense Preview
This one matters far more to Chapecoense than it might look on paper. Bottom of the Brasileirao with 18 points from 27 games, eleven behind the safety zone, they are running out of road. Vitoria, sitting 13th on 33 points, are not exactly lounging on a sun lounger either, but four points of breathing room above the drop zone is enough to make this a very different kind of pressure. Jair Ventura’s side host at the Barradao in Salvador knowing a win here could put serious distance between themselves and the bottom three. Chapecoense need something from this game just to keep their survival hopes breathing.
What makes this fixture particularly interesting is the contrast in where each side’s problems lie. Vitoria have been frustratingly careless with leads this past month, dropping points from winning positions in back-to-back league matches. Chapecoense, on the other hand, have a defence that has shipped 53 goals in 27 league games. That is not a defensive unit, that is a turnstile. When you set a side that creates chances against a side that cannot keep the ball out, the fixture tends to go one way. The Barradao crowd will expect Ventura’s men to take advantage, and the numbers suggest they probably will.
Vitoria’s home form has been their bedrock this season, collecting 25 points from their first 11 home matches, the best home win rate in the division at that stage. They have not won away from home all season in the league, picking up just five points on the road, so the Barradao is very much where they live and breathe. Chapecoense arrive having had a flicker of life in recent weeks, but they remain the division’s most porous defence and they are travelling to one of the toughest venues for a side in their position. The home side should fancy this.
Vitoria vs Chapecoense Form
Vitoria’s form has been a bit of a rollercoaster and Ventura will not be entirely happy with how September went. His side had Cruzeiro 1-0 up at the Barradao on September 20 before collapsing to a 3-1 defeat, with Rene’s opener cancelled out just after the break before Cruzeiro ran away with it. A week earlier they were two goals up inside 12 minutes at Mirassol, with Rene netting both, only to draw 2-2 when Edson Carioca popped up late. Five points dropped from winning positions in consecutive matches is not the form of a side that has fully clicked, even if the talent to win games is clearly there.
Rene is the obvious bright spot. The striker has scored in each of Vitoria’s last three league games, four goals in total, beginning with the header from a corner that beat Gremio 1-0 at home on September 7. Before that win over Gremio, Vitoria had lost four straight across all competitions, including league defeats to Bahia and Atletico-MG and Copa do Brasil exits to Vasco over two legs. So the squad has wobbles, but at home against the division’s worst defence, the conditions are set up for Ventura’s side to show their better face.
Chapecoense’s recent form is a mixed bag of moments rather than genuine momentum. Their third league win of the season came at Corinthians on September 6, a 2-1 comeback with Marcinho grabbing both goals and Yannick Bolasie providing the assist for the winner. That was also their first away victory of the campaign, and for a day it felt like something was shifting. But Internacional came to the Arena Conda six days later and won 2-1, and then Atletico-MG dominated them a week after that, putting more than 20 shots on target before Cassierra equalised late to snatch a 1-1 draw. Chapecoense have conceded in all three matches since that Corinthians win. The defensive fragility is not going away.
Vitoria vs Chapecoense Head to Head
The two sides met earlier this season at the Arena Conda on April 5, and it finished 1-1. That game had a bit of drama in it, with Edenilson picking up a red card in the first half that left Vitoria down to ten men. Neto Pessoa headed Chapecoense in front late on, looking like the hosts had made the numerical advantage count, before Matheuzinho converted a stoppage-time penalty to salvage a point for the visitors. It was the kind of result that flattered Vitoria given the circumstances, and it underlines that Chapecoense are capable of making things awkward, even if their overall record in this fixture over recent seasons has been difficult.
The key difference this time around is the venue. Vitoria at the Barradao, with their home record this season, is a very different proposition to Vitoria travelling away. Chapecoense’s own record on the road has been poor all year, and they arrive here needing to suddenly become a defensively solid outfit against a striker in Rene who is in the middle of a hot streak. History does not point to anything especially predictable between these sides, but the current context leans clearly in Vitoria’s favour.
Vitoria vs Chapecoense Lineups
Ventura has a few headaches going into this one. Gabriel Baralhas and Ramon are both still working through muscle injuries and will not feature. Mateus Silva picked up a thigh problem in the Cruzeiro game and remains unavailable despite returning to some controlled training during the international break. Camutanga has resumed work on the pitch after foot surgery but has not been cleared for ball work or competitive action, and Walace is also making his way back from a muscle complaint. It is a lengthy list, but Ventura should still have enough to put out a competitive side at home. Rene leads the attack, and if Erick and Matheuzinho can find space in behind, Vitoria have the tools to hurt a leaky defence.
Chapecoense come into this with Bruno Tubarao back from a thigh injury, which gives Rafael Lacerda slightly more to choose from than he had in recent weeks. Joao Paulo returns from suspension following his red card against Internacional, which is a boost for the backline. Dudu keeps his place at right-back after performing well in the 1-1 at Atletico-MG. The injury list is still significant though, with Heitor, Rafael Carvalheira, Max Alves, Vinicius Balieiro and Robert all unavailable. Lacerda has had to patch things together at the back all season, and it shows in the numbers. Marcinho will look to cause problems going forward, and Cassierra, having just broken a 19-match scoring drought, will be hoping that goal has freed something up for him.
Vitoria vs Chapecoense Tactics
Vitoria tend to set up in a way that gets bodies forward without leaving themselves entirely exposed at the back. Ventura likes a structured midfield base, and with Goncalves and Martinez sitting in the centre, there is a platform for Erick and Matheuzinho to work off. The wide forward Tarzia gives them an outlet on the left, and with Rene as the focal point, the system is built to funnel chances towards their most in-form player. At home, Vitoria press with more intensity than they do on the road, and against a Chapecoense side that can struggle to build through the thirds cleanly, that press could be the source of a lot of problems for the visitors.
Chapecoense under Lacerda have tried to set up with some defensive compactness, but the sheer volume of goals they have conceded tells you that plan has had limited success. With 53 goals shipped in 27 games, the issues are structural rather than tactical, and no amount of shape will paper over the cracks when individual errors keep creeping in. Going forward, Lacerda will probably look to Marcinho and Garcez to be sharp on transitions, and Cassierra’s reawakened scoring instinct is worth watching. But if Chapecoense are going to get anything here, they will need a defensive performance that has been almost entirely beyond them this season, and they will need to nick their chances when they come. That is a lot to ask at the Barradao.
Vitoria vs Chapecoense Prediction and Betting Tips
Vitoria have dropped points needlessly in recent weeks but they are at home, in front of their own crowd, against the division’s worst defence. Rene is in the kind of form where you back him to score most weeks right now, and Chapecoense have conceded in every game since their win at Corinthians a month ago. There is a vulnerability about the visitors that Vitoria’s attacking players are well-equipped to exploit, and the Barradao factor has been the one consistent thing about Ventura’s side all season. A home win with goals at both ends feels like the most likely outcome. Chapecoense usually find a way to score even when they are losing, and Vitoria’s defence, while decent at home, is not without its own soft moments.
The tip is Vitoria to win 2-1. It fits the pattern of this Vitoria side, who rarely keep clean sheets but usually do enough at home to win. It fits Chapecoense, who score regularly enough but concede far more. Both teams have the forward quality to get on the scoresheet, and the way this fixture is set up, a competitive but ultimately comfortable Vitoria victory feels right. Back the 2-1 in the correct score market.