Ajax vs Az Alkmaar

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Preview

There are derbies and there are title races, and occasionally you get a fixture that is genuinely both. Ajax against AZ Alkmaar at the Johan Cruijff Arena on Saturday night is exactly that. Ajax sit second in the Eredivisie on 21 points, three behind Feyenoord, while AZ are right on their heels with 20 alongside PSV and Twente. Three points here for either side does not just feel good in the moment, it sends a message about who is serious about pushing Feyenoord all the way this season.

For Ajax in particular, this is a game they badly want to win at home. Michel Sanchez arrived in June after a fifth-place finish that felt like an embarrassment for a club of Ajax’s stature, and while the away form has been brilliant — five wins from five on the road — the Arena has been a different story. Three draws, a 3-1 loss to PSV, and goals conceded in every single home league game. This is a ground that once intimidated the entire continent and right now it is giving up goals to Heerenveen and Excelsior. Something has to give. Saturday is the kind of occasion where Ajax traditionally turn it on at home.

AZ come in with their own problems though. The Kaasboeren have taken just one point from their last three league outings, losing to Feyenoord and Twente and drawing at Cambuur. They are drifting at the worst possible time, and Leeroy Echteld needs a performance here to stop the slide. What makes this spicy is the head-to-head record, which gives AZ every reason to believe they can come here and get something, and gives Ajax every reason to want to prove a point.

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Form

Ajax hit a rough patch in October, going three games without a win and suffering a 2-1 defeat at Hajduk Split in the Conference League on the 15th. Since then though, they have looked sharp again. Wins at Groningen, against Atalanta in Europe, and then at Sparta Rotterdam have brought nine goals and only three conceded across that run. Julian Brandt is the creative heartbeat of this side with six league goals and two assists already, and he was the architect of both first-half goals at Sparta. Tolu Arokodare, on loan from Wolves, has five league goals and looks like a real threat. Seventeen-year-old Abdellah Ouazane is also chipping in, having scored at Sparta and against Atalanta. There is genuine quality in this attack.

The concern remains the home record. Nine goals conceded in five Arena games compared to just four in five away games tells you everything about where Ajax’s defensive vulnerability lies. The 2-2 draws with Heerenveen and Excelsior at home should not be happening at this level of ambition. Sanchez has work to do to make that ground feel like a fortress again rather than a place where points get dropped.

AZ’s form coming in is the bigger worry for their fans. Three league games without a win is one thing, but a 2-0 home defeat to Twente last Saturday was genuinely poor. Twente scored in the 84th minute through Orjasaeter, and AZ could not respond even with Twente going down to ten men when Weidmann was sent off. Then it went to 2-0 in stoppage time. That is a soft performance. They had looked decent in Europe, beating Hapoel Beer Sheva and thrashing Ararat-Armenia 4-0, but domestically the wheels are wobbling. Before their European adventure kicked in they lost 2-0 at Feyenoord, so they have now lost three of their last five in all competitions.

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Head to Head

Here is the uncomfortable truth for Ajax. AZ have not lost to them in 11 meetings since a 2-0 KNVB Cup semi-final defeat back in March 2022. That is an extraordinary run against a club of Ajax’s resources and pedigree. More damaging still was what happened in January of this year, when AZ thrashed Ajax 6-0 in the KNVB Cup round of 16 in Alkmaar. That result matched the heaviest defeat in Ajax’s professional history. It was the game that cost Maarten Martens his job and handed Echteld the keys to the dugout. The psychological weight of that scoreline cannot be overstated.

The venue flip to Amsterdam does give Ajax a theoretical advantage, but given that their home form this season has actually been shakier than their away form, it is hard to lean on that too heavily. AZ have demonstrated they know exactly how to hurt this Ajax side, and that knowledge does not disappear just because they are playing in a different stadium.

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Lineups

Ajax have a growing injury list to contend with. Kasper Dolberg is the most significant long-term absentee, having had surgery on a knee injury picked up during the October international break with Denmark. Caio Henrique and Anton Gaaei are both out until after the upcoming international break. Simon Adingra and Oliver Edvardsen are also unavailable. Steven Berghuis has missed the last several weeks after leaving the Willem II win on September 15, but Sanchez suggested he expects Berghuis to be available for this one, which would be a welcome boost. Daley Blind is gradually working his way back from his back injury, coming on as a substitute at Sparta, and Joeri Heerkens is also in the squad picture. Marcos Leonardo was an unused sub at Sparta and could come into contention here.

AZ are without Ayoub Oufkir through suspension, picking up a yellow card in the Twente defeat after coming on as a sub, which is a frustrating loss for Echteld. More significant is the fitness of Wouter Goes, who missed the Twente game through lack of match fitness and whose availability for Saturday remains uncertain. That is a problem in central defence, where Wesley Hoedt and Lewis Schouten started against Twente. Kees Smit has been training again which suggests he may be pushing for involvement. AZ’s defensive options are already stretched and losing Goes for another week would leave them exposed against the likes of Brandt and Arokodare.

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Tactics

Ajax under Sanchez play with real attacking intent, particularly through Brandt pulling strings in central areas and the forwards making runs in behind. The system relies heavily on getting the ball wide and into dangerous crossing positions, but Brandt’s movement and his ability to connect play is what makes everything tick. Against AZ, who can be vulnerable in transition, Ajax will look to press high and win the ball quickly in the opposition half. The home side need their defensive shape to be far tighter than it has been at the Arena this season. If they can keep it compact and not let AZ play through them, their attacking quality should be enough to create opportunities.

AZ under Echteld like to build from the back with some structure, but that approach has looked shaky recently when pressed. Their best performances have come with pace on the counter and through direct running. Weslley Patati has shown in Europe what he can offer, and AZ will look to spring their forwards quickly. The absence of Oufkir on the right flank and the potential absence of Goes in the centre of defence makes them vulnerable to exactly the kind of direct, intense play Ajax are capable of in their best moments. If Ajax can assert themselves early in this one and make AZ defend deep, the visitors may struggle to impose their usual shape.

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction and Betting Tips

This is a fascinating matchup with genuine tension in it. AZ’s head-to-head record demands respect, and a 6-0 win in January is not something you just brush aside. But Ajax are flying on the road and have found their scoring touch again, and the return of Berghuis could be significant. AZ are in poor domestic form, down to ten men struggling to even close out a game at home to Twente, and their defensive situation without Goes is uncertain. Ajax at home, with this much to prove after years of the Arena being anything but a fortress, feels like the night they finally turn that record around.

The goals tend to flow in these fixtures and with Ajax’s home defence having been so porous, and AZ carrying threats of their own, both sides finding the net looks a fair shout. The value is in backing Ajax to win while both teams score, which fits the pattern of the Arena games this season and accounts for AZ’s ability to cause problems even when their form dips.