Racing De Santander vs Valencia

Racing de Santander vs Valencia Preview

Sunday evening at El Sardinero and both of these sides are desperately searching for something to hold onto early in the season. Racing de Santander are back in La Liga for the first time since 2011-12 after winning the Segunda Division last term, and while the reality of top-flight football has been harsh at times, they’ve at least shown they can do something at home. Valencia, meanwhile, are in genuine trouble. Four points from seven games, sitting 19th, and looking like a club that hasn’t quite figured out what it is yet under a new manager still finding his feet.

Javier Aguirre took the reins towards the end of September and this is very much the beginning of his project at Los Che. The 67-year-old knows Spanish football well from his time at Mallorca, but knowing the league and knowing this squad are two different things. He needs a result, badly. His side have only scored four times in La Liga all season, which tells you almost everything about why they’re where they are. Racing aren’t flying either, but they’ve got all seven of their points at home, which makes El Sardinero a genuinely important fortress for Jose Alberto Lopez’s men.

The incentive for both sides is obvious. Valencia need their second win of the season to start climbing away from the relegation places. Racing need points on the board at home because they’ve taken absolutely nothing on the road. This is a fixture where both managers would take a draw before kick-off, but neither can afford to be passive about it. Something has to give, or perhaps nothing will.

Racing de Santander vs Valencia Form

Racing’s form coming into this one makes for uncomfortable reading if you’re Jose Alberto Lopez. A 7-0 aggregate battering across two matches before the international break, conceding seven to Barcelona and then five more to Celta Vigo, is the sort of run that saps confidence and raises serious questions about where the goals against are coming from defensively. Two wins, one draw and four defeats from seven is a reasonable promoted side return in one sense, but those heavy defeats hurt the goal difference and the morale. The saving grace is that both of those wins have come in Santander, and their supporters have been loud and behind the team at El Sardinero throughout.

Yassir Zabiri has been the real bright spot for Racing. Six goals in seven league appearances from a 21-year-old is an outstanding return, and he’s been the reason Racing have looked threatening at all going forward. Sergio Canales adds experience and composure in the middle of the park, and when Racing are at home and settled, they can be a threat. The question is whether Lopez can set his side up to be defensively compact enough to stop Valencia getting anything from the game, because right now the back line has been leaking badly.

Valencia’s form is genuinely worrying. One win from seven matches, four goals scored, and a 3-2 home defeat to Real Sociedad in their last outing before the break. Los Che have been shipping goals themselves and not finding the net with any consistency at the other end. Hugo Duro and Ryunosuke Sato are expected to lead the line, but neither has scored in La Liga this season. That’s a huge problem. If your strikers aren’t contributing then the burden falls on the midfield and wide players, and right now nobody seems to be carrying that weight for Aguirre’s side.

Racing de Santander vs Valencia Head to Head

These two sides have met 92 times across all competitions and the historical record leans slightly towards Valencia with 38 wins to Racing’s 33, and 21 draws in between. But perhaps more relevant is the fact that Valencia are unbeaten in their last nine meetings against the Green and Whites. That’s a decent run of form in this fixture, though it’s worth noting the last actual meeting between these clubs was in January 2012, finishing 2-2. So while the head-to-head history favours Los Che, it’s old data, and this is a Racing side that’s grown considerably since their years away from the top flight.

The venue matters here. All of Racing’s points this season have come at El Sardinero, and while Valencia’s unbeaten run in this fixture sounds impressive on paper, there’s a big gap in time since these sides last met. You can’t read too much into results from fourteen years ago when the personnel, managers and club circumstances are completely different. What you can take from it is that historically this has often been a close contest, and a draw is very much on the table.

Racing de Santander vs Valencia Lineups

Racing have a fitness concern over Simon Eriksson and his shoulder problem, but Andres Martin and Pedro Felipe are both available, which is good news for Lopez ahead of a match he’ll be treating as a must-win at home. The expected lineup looks solid enough for a side at this level, with Zabiri leading the line and Canales providing the creative spark from a deeper position. It’s a reasonably familiar and settled XI, which counts for something when you’ve been through a difficult fortnight.

Valencia are badly hit in the injury department. Umar Sadiq, Sergi Canos, Diego Lopez and Dimitri Foulquier are all ruled out, and both Luis Rioja and Arnaut Danjuma are doubtful heading into Sunday. That’s significant depth being stripped away from a squad that was already struggling to find goals. Aguirre looks set to go with Duro and Sato up top in what is essentially a necessity rather than a preference. The back four of Maffeo, Tarrega, Haas and Gaya provides some experience, and Pepelu in the middle is a reliable presence, but Valencia look thin in the areas where they need creativity and firepower most.

Racing de Santander vs Valencia Tactics

Lopez will want Racing to be defensively organised and hard to break down on their own patch. After conceding twelve goals in two games before the break, expect the gaffer to have worked on the defensive shape in training. They’ll likely set up in a compact mid-block, keeping the lines tight and looking to hit Valencia on the counter through Zabiri’s pace and movement. Canales will be important in that transition, picking up the ball between the lines and driving forward or threading passes into the front two. Racing won’t be adventurous from the start but they’ll look to exploit any space Valencia leave in behind.

Aguirre will probably want his side to control possession and be patient, but Valencia’s attacking personnel is so depleted right now that executing any kind of fluid attacking system will be difficult. Without Sadiq or Canos, they lack the wide threat and the physical presence in the box that a front line needs to be varied and unpredictable. The midfield of Pepelu, Mayol and Rodriguez will need to get forward and contribute, because relying solely on Duro and Sato to produce moments of quality is asking a lot given their form this season. Defensively Valencia have been shaky too, so Racing will fancy their chances of causing problems if they can get Zabiri into space.

Racing de Santander vs Valencia Prediction and Betting Tips

This is a game where the logical head and the emotional gut point in the same direction. Racing are unbeaten at home this season and have a genuine threat in Zabiri. Valencia are injury-hit, low on confidence, short on goals, and still finding their identity under a manager who’s only been in charge for a fortnight. A home win wouldn’t surprise anyone, but Los Che have enough defensive experience to make it difficult, and a draw is the most likely outcome here. Aguirre’s priority right now is stopping the rot, and a point away from home against a promoted side wouldn’t be the worst result to build from.

The 1-1 draw looks the most likely scenario. Racing have the home advantage and the top scorer in Zabiri, but Valencia will dig in and find something. Back the draw in what is a tight, cautious, low-scoring contest between two sides who need to stop losing more than they need to start winning spectacularly.