Ajax vs Sbv Excelsior

Ajax vs SBV Excelsior Preview

Saturday evening at the Johan Cruyff Arena and Ajax have a real opportunity to put themselves right in the thick of the Eredivisie title conversation. Win here against Excelsior, and depending on what happens elsewhere, Michel’s side could find themselves sitting at the top of the table come full time. That’s the prize on offer, and after a rough patch that threatened to derail their season before it had really got going, the Amsterdam giants will be absolutely desperate to take it.

The context is important here. A fortnight ago, Ajax were staring down the barrel after a 3-1 De Topper defeat to PSV Eindhoven. That kind of loss, especially to your biggest rivals, can knock a squad sideways. Instead, Michel’s men have responded in the most emphatic way possible — five goals past Fortuna Sittard, then another five against Willem II in a rescheduled fixture. Ten league goals in two games. That’s not a team licking its wounds; that’s a team that’s been let off the leash. They sit fourth on 13 points, three behind leaders PSV and AZ, one behind Feyenoord. The gap is very much closeable.

Excelsior arrive in decent nick for a team many would write off before a ball is kicked in this fixture. Ruben den Uil has them sixth in the table, and they’ve built their campaign on a relatively solid defensive base. But they come into this one off the back of a 2-1 defeat to FC Utrecht and a 2-2 draw with NEC Nijmegen, shipping two in each game. After looking relatively secure earlier in the season, there are cracks appearing. A trip to one of the most hostile atmospheres in Dutch football, against a side in red-hot attacking form, is about as tough as it gets when you’re trying to steady the ship.

Ajax vs SBV Excelsior Form

Ajax’s form trajectory over the past couple of weeks is almost impossible to ignore. The PSV defeat was obviously a setback, but in hindsight it might have been exactly the shock the squad needed. Fortuna Sittard were put to the sword 5-1, and Willem II got the same treatment in the rescheduled gameweek three clash. Goals from multiple sources, real confidence going forward, and the sort of attacking displays that remind you why Ajax at their best are one of the most exciting teams in Europe. The momentum is firmly with them right now.

The one question mark hovering over this Ajax side is whether they can string three consecutive league wins together. It sounds almost absurd to point that out about a club of their stature, but they haven’t managed it since December 2025, when they beat Groningen twice and Fortuna 3-1 around Christmas. That’s a relatively recent but telling stat. Whether that’s a psychological block or just circumstantial is hard to say, but it’s worth keeping in mind.

Excelsior’s form picture is more mixed. They’ve been competitive in most of their games this season, and seven goals conceded in six matches suggests a side that’s reasonably well organised at the back. But the last two games have shown vulnerability — conceding two in each fixture, failing to win either. The 2-1 loss at Utrecht was particularly concerning because it came against a side they should have been competitive with. Heading to Amsterdam in this kind of uncertain form, with Ajax in the mood they’re currently in, feels like it could be a difficult evening for the visitors.

Ajax vs SBV Excelsior Head to Head

This is the part of the preview that makes this fixture far more interesting than a straightforward home banker. Ajax have not beaten Excelsior in four attempts, which is a remarkable sequence when you think about the difference in stature between these two clubs. Excelsior went 18 years without winning or drawing against Ajax before the recent run began with a 2-2 draw back in August 2023. Since then? Two more 2-2 draws and a 2-1 Excelsior victory in last season’s corresponding fixture. Den Uil’s side will absolutely know these numbers, and they’ll be using them in the dressing room to back up the belief that they can get something here.

What’s interesting about the recent head-to-head pattern is that it’s not just Excelsior scrapping for a draw and hanging on — they’ve been genuinely involved in these games, scoring in every one. That attacking threat through Garden, Sliti and Yegoian is real, and Ajax’s backline will need to be switched on from the first whistle. The Johan Cruyff Arena record gives Ajax the psychological advantage on paper, but the recent results in this fixture strip a lot of that away.

Ajax vs SBV Excelsior Lineups

Michel has a couple of selection decisions to navigate. Aaron Bouwman is out after picking up a bruised lung injury from that ferocious challenge during the De Topper, and he joins Daley Blind and Simon Adingra on the sidelines. The one dilemma worth paying attention to is up front — Kasper Dolberg was outstanding against Willem II, contributing two assists and a goal in a rescheduled fixture that felt like it was made for him. But Tolu Arokodare has been a live wire this season and Michel may be reluctant to drop him. Oscar Gloukh has been on fire, chipping in for three goals across the last two games, while Julian Brandt has found the net in back-to-back matches. This Ajax attack has quality and depth.

For Excelsior, Noah Naujoks is touch-and-go after not featuring since matchday one, when he scored twice on his return. His absence would be a blow given his obvious quality in front of goal. Garden, Sliti and Yegoian have combined for nine goal involvements in the last five games, which is a genuinely impressive return and explains why Excelsior’s attack shouldn’t be taken lightly even in a game like this. Den Uil is expected to set up solidly, with the front three given license to hurt Ajax on the counter.

Ajax vs SBV Excelsior Tactics

Michel’s Ajax are playing with real intensity right now, pressing high and suffocating opponents in their own half before transitioning quickly into attack. The 5-1 wins over Fortuna and Willem II weren’t flukes — they were the product of a team that’s clicking in the final third and doing the hard work off the ball to create the space to do it. Brandt and Gloukh are particularly effective in those half-spaces, drifting between the lines to link up play and create chances. Expect Ajax to come out with real purpose here, especially knowing what a win could do for their league position.

Excelsior, for their part, will almost certainly look to sit compact and try to hit on the break. Den Uil has set his side up in a shape that’s been hard to break down for much of the season, but the last two games have shown that when opponents get at them with quick transitions, the gaps appear. If Ajax can shift the ball quickly and get Gloukh and Brandt running at Excelsior’s midfield, there should be space to exploit. The danger for the hosts is switching off defensively — this Excelsior front three, as the head-to-head record demonstrates, has the ability to punish you when you least expect it.

Ajax vs SBV Excelsior Prediction and Betting Tips

The head-to-head gives you genuine pause for thought, and Excelsior’s recent record in this fixture is not something you can just wave away. But the context feels different this time. Ajax are in a groove, playing the best football they’ve shown in months, with multiple goal threats firing at once. The Johan Cruyff Arena crowd will be electric given what’s at stake at the top of the table, and the hosts have the quality to break Excelsior’s run here. The visitors come in off back-to-back games where they conceded two, and their defensive wobble is coming at the worst possible time.

The tip is Ajax to win and both teams to score, in line with the head-to-head pattern showing Excelsior finding the net in recent meetings and Ajax’s current attacking form suggesting they’ll more than match that. A 3-1 scoreline feels like a realistic outcome — the hosts should have the firepower to win comfortably, but Excelsior’s attacking quality means a clean sheet is probably optimistic. Match Result and BTTS with Ajax to win is where the value sits here.